Chuck Denton - The Real Estate Advisor in San Diego County with ERA Coastal Properties

Numbers of Home Sales INCREASE in California!

2008-05-28T20:43:00.000-07:00

According to the California Association of REALTORS®:

LOS ANGELES (May 23) – Home sales increased 2.5 percent in April in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 32 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

“Home sales registered a 2.5 percent year-to-year gain compared with April 2007, ending a 30-month string of year-to-year percentage decreases that began in October 2005,” said C.A.R. President William E. Brown. “This is not to say that the credit crunch that has contributed to the sales decline has disappeared. Both tighter underwriting standards and the ongoing effects of the credit/liquidity crunch continue to constrain sales.”

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 366,720 in April at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 2.5 percent from the revised 357,640 sales pace recorded in April 2007.

The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2008 would be if sales maintained the April pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during April 2008 was $403,870, a 32 percent decrease from the revised $594,110 median for April 2007, C.A.R. reported. The April 2008 median price fell 2.6 percent compared with March’s revised $414,640 median price.

“Significant price declines are spurring home sales to bargain hunters and first-time buyers at the middle- and low-end of the market, especially in areas with a concentration of distressed properties,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.
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A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE & OPINION:

While the mainstream media continues to report sluggish homes sales in California, the news that sales are actually up (albeit slightly) is perhaps a positive sign. Many attribute this to some foreclosures and short-sales moving into the "under-contract" mode as banks are slowly coming around to accepting less than list-price. This is very positive - in my humble opinion - despite the incredible standards lenders are holding buyers to in regards to originating loans.

Many folks hear about these teaser interest rates in ads and fail to realize that most of that applies to buyers looking for a conforming loan with near perfect credit and full documentation (verification of income & assets). Nearly 9 out of 10 loans that originated in the peak years of 2003-2005 were "stated income". That means they could literally state their income and everyone signed off. That is no longer the case.

There was a time when a lender could get an automated approval (just by entering your data in a computer) and presto: "Congratulations, You're Approved!" would spit out. Today that process has a few more checks & balances.

Now, most of the nearly 300 mainstream lenders that brokers could use in the past have dwindled to less than 50 today! So the guidelines are tougher, the appraisers are tighter, and Wall Street just aren't buying loans like they used to.

The median home in CA has also dropped to $403,870 - a whopping 32% drop from a year ago. Many experts predict we have even more foreclosures and short-sales to hit the market in the next few years as these ARMS make their scheduled adjustment. Many sellers (who counted on refinancing) are a bit out of luck and time. So troubled waters may still be ahead in California.

But hey, it's still a great time to buy - especially if you plan on staying in the market...While no one is proclaiming that we're back in 2005 just yet, I'll take whatever good news we can get!

As always, feel free to contact me anytime with questions or comments. Thanks for taking the time to check the blog out. Have a great day!

Chuck Denton (chuck@eracoastal.com)
(760) 908-8969

1st Annual "Surf Out Hunger" Food Drive

2008-04-22T12:55:00.001-07:00

Now through June 12th, ERA Coastal Properties is sponsoring our food drive to help "Surf Out Hunger". We plan on making this an annual spring event...so this is the 1st Annual Surf Out Hunger food drive. Donations are usually down in the spring as we make plans for the summer. We want to help those in need as we can.

Everything we collect is going to the North County Food Bank (in San Marcos). We have been in contact with them and they are excited to be a part of our little event. Of course we need everyone's help.

So if you are in the San Diego area, we would be so appreciative of any donated items that can be dropped off at our office.

LOCATION:
731 South Highway 101, Suite 1P
Solana Beach, CA 92075
(858) 793-3600

Some Suggested items:
-Can goods (meats, fruits, vegetables, tuna)
-Dry goods (rice, cereal, instant potatoes, oatmeal)
-Beans (canned or dry)
-Pasta
-Peanut Butter/Jelly
-Breads
-Condiments
-Juice/water/coffee
-Toiletries
-Diapers/wipes
-Baby formula/food

If you don't live in the area and would like to donate, we welcome checks made out to: North County Food Bank or a grocery story gift card.

We're trying to advertise as much as we can for this cause. Hopefully this will continue to grow and be a positive influence for those in need. Thank you for your support!

Use Your Mobile Phone to Retrieve Home Price for FREE!

2008-04-22T12:36:00.000-07:00

For those who know me, I am a bit of a "techie"! This is a cool feature that has been around since last summer from a company called Housefront.

How many times are you driving around and see a house with no flyers and wondered - "How much is that house?" Perhaps you don't want to call the agent, so you drive on and wonder all day.

Well there is another option. Simply text the address, city, and state to: 46873 (spells out HOUSE) and hit SEND. You should receive a text message with the price, square footage, etc...how cool is that? And only standard text messaging fees (from your wireless carrier) applies.

The company has more than 100 million homes in their database (over 90% of the nation's listed inventory).

You can also go to Housefront.com to access more listing details, view home comparisons, check out aerial photos, see the home sales history, and more!

And it's FREE! Kind of cool.

Down Market...Depends If You're Buying or Selling?

2008-04-22T12:15:00.000-07:00

It's been a little while since I last posted. I have to say that as of the past few weeks, there has been a noticeable sputter of activity in the real estate market here. While we are nowhere near the mayhem of 2005, there seem to be a a few more buyers coming out of the woods. That's definitely a bit of good news!

The media is reporting that foreclosures in California are up a whooping 327% since 2007...averaging more than 500 a day. Some believe the nation's economy IS in a recession, others say it's headed that way. While we're in an election year, some of the "talk" has to be taken in context. But we also see things in our own world that may lead us to one conclusion or the other. Record high gas prices aren't helping matters!

Many experts do assert that the "loans-gone-wild" theory (of bad loans originated in '04/'05 resetting to higher rates) is merely working it's way through the system and it's not pretty.

Another BIG question many are contemplating is that will these dicey-loans begin to creep into mainstream home loans?

Default Notices mark the start of the foreclosure process. DataQuick reports that of the homeowners in "default", around 32% of those will be able to STOP the foreclosure process by selling, bringing their payments current, or working out some other plan with the lender. A year ago that figure was 52% emerging ok. So less folks are able to stop the foreclosure train before being run over.

While perhaps not the best news, it does provide an bristling opportunity to BUY. As the old saying goes, 'BUY low, SELL high'.

Historically, election years often see an improved economy (even slightly) before November...we'll see?

GREAT Time for BUYERS in San Diego County!!!

2008-01-15T10:55:00.000-08:00

HomeDex™ Key Points
December 2007 Data

NORTH COUNTY

1. The median price for all home sales – attached and detached – decreased by approximately 9%, from $527,000 in November to $485,000 in December.

a. Detached home prices fell 3.4%, from November to December, from $589,000 to $569,000.

b. Year-over-year median price of detached homes decreased 8.96% from the December 2006 price of $625,000.

c. Attached home prices increased during December by 3.35%, from $343,000 in November to $355,000.

d. Year over price of attached homes was down 6.58% from $380,000 in December 2006.

2. The median days-on-market for single-family detached homes in North County rose from 65 to 66 days between November and December. The average days-on-market for single family detached homes in North County fell from 82 in November to 79 in December.

3. The number of North County single-family detached homes sold rose decreased 1.14% last month from 440 in November to 435 in December. Year over number of North County single family detached homes sold declined 34% from the 660 detached homes sold in December 2006.

ENTIRE COUNTY

1. The median price for detached homes fell 6.13% from $529,450 in November to $497,000 in December.

2. The median price for attached homes decreased 4.56% $340,000 to $324,000. The median price of detached homes in North County decreased and attached homes experienced moderate increases in median price in December, while days-on-market decreased slightly in detached homes and increased in attached homes this month. Changes in the mortgage markets will work to stabilize interest rates and restore confidence in potential buyers, with the House of Representatives passing a bill to forgive the tax liability on short sales.

The present market conditions are ideal for buyers. Interest rates remain comparable to 40-year lows and the inventories becoming higher than has been the case in the recent past. First time buyers have a great opportunity to get into home ownership.

The current condition of the housing market needs to be kept in perspective. House values rose 88 percent on a national average – higher in California – over the past decade. The number of U.S. households is expected to increase 15 percent over the next decade, creating a continued high demand for housing.

Even with the lower appreciation levels in home prices, there will be a strong investment incentive to buy homes in North San Diego County, especially considering that a home is not like other investment assets.

Source: North San Diego County Association of REALTORS

Senate Passes FHA Loan Limit Increase! BIG Win for Consumers!

2007-12-18T12:03:00.000-08:00

This past Friday (Dec. 14th) saw a huge victory for consumers with the U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passing the FHA Modernization Act (S. 2338) by a vote of 93 to 1, which basically reforms the FHA.

This is also a HUGE victory for REALTORS who have lobbied Congress aggressively all year to pass FHA reform. Many desperate homeowners now have a little relief heading their way through alternative refinancing options. And in this market, options are a GOOD THING!

However, the hurdle hasn't been completely jumped yet...there are still a number of details to be worked out between the Senate FHA reform bill and the House passed version. A conference committee is set to resolve those differences. But both sides agree it will be done. The huge bi-partisan support is at least one thing Congress can agree on...the President has indicated he will sign it.

With the above average value of homes in San Diego County, an increase in the FHA loan amount is welcome relief.

There is still yet-to-be-introduced legislation in the Senate to reform Government Sponsored Entities (GSEs) Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac...one step at a time I guess?

The wheels of reform may be turning slow, but at least they ARE turning!

November Market Report

2007-12-06T14:41:00.000-08:00

No question we are in a down real estate market. Foreclosures rates are high while interest rates are pretty good. No thanks to the media constantly reporting how bad it is "out there".

The stock market has been performing well. Unemployment is relatively low this decade and the bond market is strong.

The real issue is who does this market hurt and who does it benefit? It all sort of depends on which side of the fence you sit. Sellers may feel like they should have unloaded 2 years ago while buyers are probably glad they are "buyers" now and not the other way around!

I am slightly amused by folks who ask when will we know when we've hit "the bottom" of the market? My answer is simple - 'when it's no longer the bottom'!

So while many sellers are interested in moving up or down - by buying again - are afraid to sell, they can equally benefit by buying now rather than waiting for the market to improve. They can sell for more, but then turn around and pay more...it's all relative

Buyers who may not have been able to afford the market here two years ago, should be better off today entering the market.
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MARKET REPORT- State of California - November 2007 - according to the CA Association of REALTORS:

1. Home sales in the state are DOWN -14.9% from November 2007 to 2006. Home sales are also DOWN (so far this year) -38.9% from 2006.

2. The median home price has dropped -9.9% from November 2007 to 2006, but only -4.7% so far this year on average.

3. The median Days On Market (DOM) has only increased 3 days longer (57) and mortgage interest rates fallen -0.2%...Wow, some GOOD NEWS!

As always, feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.

Warm regards,

Chuck Denton
(760) 908-8969
chuck@eracoastal.com

Taking a Break from the Real Estate Business...Just Wanted to Say THANKS!

2007-11-02T10:56:00.000-07:00

November 2, 2007
Many people have been following the wildfires around San Diego County as well as Orange and L.A. Counties with interest. San Diego was hardest hit losing more than 1600 homes. However many many others were saved by the incredible work and determination of firefighters, law enforcement personnel, neighbors, and others.

One of the most remarkable aspects of this fire was the pure randomness that in which it struck homes. Many streets would have nearly every home completely destroyed but leave 2 or 3 virtually untouched. The notorious Santa Ana winds helped send the flaming embers onto rooftops.

Take a look at the picture below where several homes are randomly burned down and others look perfect...

President Bush Inspects the Damage Around Rancho Bernardo

Words cannot describe the appreciation and gratitude for the many folks who risked their lives (and health) to save what they could...they are simply HEROES! I saw many homes where firefighters - unable to save the home - decided to try and carry out valuable possessions left behind...pictures, wedding albums, etc...

Take a look at a house in Rancho Bernardo (below) where some of the valuable possessions had been taken outside.
Over and over there were remarkable acts of noble bravery and courage. Thank you to all who helped fight the fight.

The "Reverse 911" System also saved many lives, calling people at all hours of the day and night to get out. While it has been widely praised, there is some work to perfect the system.

This picture (below) was a hillside in Rancho Bernardo with a simple white cross on top. Despite the area around the hill (and many homes) burning up completely, the cross appeared unmarked by the flames.

We also got several calls to voluntarily evacuate. Fortunately, the high winds shifted to the south and we averted disaster. My family was blessed. Others weren't so lucky.

KGTV's Elizabeth Sanchez reporting LIVE from Fallbrook, CA

Our office in Solana Beach was evacuated - mainly for the thick suffocating smoke. Unexpectedly, Del Mar and the surrounding areas also had some tense moments.

A picture of what the 5 Freeway looked like in North County Monday afternoon by the Del Mar Racetrack is below...looking north

What this county experienced in the past 2 weeks was unbelievable. San Diegan's came together to help their fellow neighbors. It was a far cry from post-Hurricane Katrina and the free-for-all that ensued. Lots of lessons learned from the Cedar Fires in 2003.

Several Tankers preparing to drop retardant...shows you just how crowded the skies were...
A C-130 prepares to drop retardant

I'm proud of what I saw from my community. Although I do not wish for a repeat disaster experience, I'm confident that if that day rears it's ugly head again...our community will have each other's back - once more!

For those who wish to donate to the disaster relief effort: www.sdarc.org

Additional information on the fires, etc...
www.sandiego.gov

August 2007 Market Report - Homes Sales in North San Diego County

2007-10-02T11:31:00.000-07:00

October 2, 2007

While many people continue to be discouraged by the "slow" market we're experiencing in San Diego County (and other places), there are reasons to be encouraged. First, as bad as you may "believe" 2006 to have been...it still ranks as the 7th highest sales of homes in history (according to the the National Association of REALTORS).

While many "Pending Sales" (or homes currently under contract) are at record lows, many believe that it continues to add fuel to the notion that the Fed will continue to look at lowering rates to stimulate growth. PLUS it is a FANTASTIC time to BUY BUY BUY...Especially if it's a foreclosure or "short-sale". As long as you're not looking for a quick flip, it's a very wise choice.

SO, FOR THE LATEST MARKET NEWS...........

The latest summary report is out for home sales in North San Diego County...according to the North County Association of REALTORS (prepared by Robert Brown, Ph.D. with the Department of Economics at California State University).

Single-Family Detached Homes:
- The median price for single-family detached (SFD) homes in North San Diego County increased 1.54% from $650,000 (in July 2007) to $660,000 (in August 2007), while SFD homes in non-North County zip codes decreased 1.65% to $506,000.

- August 2007 median SFD prices in North San Diego County increased 4.97% compared to $628,750 in August 2006. The median price decreased 5.15% in Non-North County single-family detached dwellings.

- The countywide median SFD price was $580,000, down .17% from July 2007.

- The median days on market (DOM) for North San Diego County SFD homes rose from 46 days (July 2007) to 53 days (August 2007). The average number of DOM rose to 68 (August 2007) from 65 (July 2007).

Single-Family Attached Homes Prices:
- The North San Diego County median-priced single-family attached (SFA) homes decreased 2.87% to $385,000 (August 2007) from $396,375 (July 2007). Non-North County SFA median prices fell 2.2% to $334,000.

- The countywide SFA median price was $350,000 (August 2007), down from $358,950 (July 2007) and from $362,750 (August 2006).

- The median days on market (DOM) for North County SFA homes sold decreased to 43 days (August 2007) from 47 (July 2007). The average number of DOM fell from 61 (July 2007) to 55 (August 2007).

Call or email me with any questions, ANYTIME!

Chuck Denton
ERA Coastal Properties
(760) 908-8969
chuck@eracoastal.com

June 2007 - Home Sales Data

2007-07-17T15:34:00.000-07:00

July 17, 2007

JUST RELEASED...Here's the latest market report for North County (San Diego) according to data collected from the North San Diego County Association of REALTORS:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------(1) The median price for all North County homes sales - attached & detached - up 1.7% in May, increasing $10,000 - from $580,000 to $590,000.

a. Detached home prices in North County increased 1.83%, from May to June, from $655,000 to $667,000

b. Attached home prices in North County increased during June 2007 by 0.76% from $396,000 a month earlier to $399,000.

c. Median days-on-market (DOM) for single-family detached homes in North County increased from 43 to 50 days between May and June. The number of North County single-family detached homes sold increased 10.48% last month - from 725 to 801.

CONTEXT & PERSPECTIVE:

Despite the perceived notion of losing ground, the housing market continues to remain stable with signs of optimism as the market swings into summer - traditionally the best time of the year for the housing market.

The present conditions are highly ideal for buyers (nothing new there!). Interest rates remain comparable to 40-year lows and the inventories are still high. Home prices are expected to rise modestly early next year.

The current condition of the housing market needs to be kept in perspective. Hosue values rose 88% on a national average - higher in California - over the past decade.

- The number of U.S. households is expected to increase 15% over the next decade, creating a continued high demand for housing.

- Even with the lower appreciation levels, there will still be strong investment incentive to buy homes in North San Diego County...especially considering that a home is not like other investment assets.

Will The Market Come Back Soon Enough???

2007-07-09T00:36:00.000-07:00

July 9th, 2007

Lots of folks in the western U.S. (southern California & Arizona mainly) are wondering about the triumphant return of the slower than slow real estate market...

When it is safe to sell my house and NOT lose my shirt? When can I actually get a respectable contract in less than 6-9 months? Is it worth it to try and sell at this time just to see what we can get?

WHEN, WHEN, WHEN will things turn back to an even flow between buyer and seller???????

Well no one has that magical crystal ball. But obviously, many "booming" markets of a few years back couldn't sustain 25-30% appreciation year after year. There had to be a slowing of the momentum...an "adjustment" of sorts.

A snapshot of the hotter markets in the western U.S. (Las Vegas, Phoenix, San Diego, etc) have shown sales volume and transactions sides for most of the TOP 100 Real Estate Brokerages in those markets cooling anywhere from 29% all the way up to nearly 40% from a year ago. The top office in the formerly "red-hot" Sarasota, FL actually had business drop more than 50%!

Homeowners aren't alone in feeling a bit squeezed...New home sales are also struggling to keep their head above water. The inventory has swelled for builders looking to hold onto their investments. The incentives often sound just short of a fire sale.

One indication of how the market is moving can be measured by what homebuilders are offering. A few years back (in the hot markets) many builders, who had developed relationships with real estate agents over the years, were no longer "cooperating" by paying the broker's commission. Agents, many of whom had brought lots of buyers in, were no longer needed. (By the way, those commissions are paid from an advertising & marketing budget from builders. They are not - as some believe - paid out by building it into the buyer's price.)

They simply didn't have to pay those commissions because of the massive demand that swept many new homes up as fast as they were available. Homeowner "waiting lists" numbered in the hundreds for many new communities. They didn't need real estate agents, despite the fact that nearly 60% of their previous buyers came from agents.

They also weren't offering the crazy incentives to buyers...new pool, $25,000 in upgrade options, ALL applicable closing costs paid, plus a brand NEW PLASMA HDTV! But for many builders, that's the "norm" today.

Along with - you guessed it - Real estate broker fees. Many builders are offering 5% or more on the total cost...rather than just the normal 3% on the base price. MY MY MY...how things have changed!

A few years back my wife and I were looking at a new community east of Pasadena (CA) and were notified they were going to release 15 new lots on a certain date ( to add onto the other 90+ homes). To be eligible for the "drawing", we had to show up at the lot at 8:30am on the dot with a conditional loan approval letter and a cashiers check for $15,000 just to be considered...no guarantees! We chose not to do that.

So when builders back down some of the incentives for buyers and agents, that will signal a cautious return to normalcy. That's actually a good thing for the market. The Fed cutting rates would also be a good thing, but we'll save that for another time.

Other markets, that resisted the boom have actually been rather strong. Charlotte and Houston are doing quite well with anywhere from a healthy 6-8% appreciation up to a robust 12% or more in some neighborhoods.

But it remains a bonafide BUYERS MARKET for now.

If you have to sell:

- Price it RIGHT THE FIRST TIME!!! Too many people test the market and with a higher price and miss a ton of prospective buyers in the beginning because of it. Being the "new house on the market" is great for agents and buyers. A serious price will usually yield more serious offers.

- Stage the house with elegance and style. Pick up the clutter, clean up the kids' toys and dog hair, take the family pictures off the walls, remove the crayon drawings off the refrigerator, and empty lots of stuff out of the master closet...for starters. And please keep the yard looking nice...maybe even plant a few colorful flowers in the front. If you know buyers are coming, open ALL the blinds/curtains and turn on EVERY light. It's a little trick that shows the cheeriness of the home. Next time you're in a new model home, look around and you'll notice that every light fixture is on (even during the day) and every blind is open...Most new home models also have their interior doors removed to show maximum space. I wouldn't necessarily recommend that!!!

- Consider replacing old dull light fixtures with something new...Polished nickel is popular finish and has a broad appeal in taste and decor. Remember if the lights are on, buyers will naturally look at the fixtures.

- Keep the kitchen counters clean and reasonably empty...Nothing worse than dirty dishes in the sink and that GIGANTIC flower arrangement swallowing up the entire island counter. Put that little used blender, toaster, etc. away. Buyers want to see space and more space. And PLEASE don't store the cat's liter box in the pantry!

- Be FLEXIBLE...Don't focus on the just the price...look at the whole picture. Are they putting down 20%, how long has my house been on the market, how much previous activity has my house received, are they asking me to paying most of their closing costs, how soon can they close, can I deal with keeping my house on the market another few months if they walk, what impact will there be on the family if we can't move into our new place before school starts back...????? These can all be important and relevant issues. Sometimes we lose sight of the "big picture".

- Be PATIENT...Many real estate professionals ARE indeed optimistic about the market improving...perhaps as soon as spring 2008. The economy is strong and will be even stronger with a healthy real estate market. Stocks are up and unemployment is low. But remember, perception often lags reality.

Chances are - you'll find the right buyer (with a little more time than normal) and things will work out. Stay focused and keep the faith!